This morning I had the privilege of attending a housing market briefing presented by Anthony Passarelli, Lead Economist and Spokesperson for Southern Ontario at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). As someone who works alongside buyers, sellers, and families across Windsor, Leamington, and Kingsville every single day, I walked away with a lot of thoughts — and I wanted to share the key takeaways with you while they’re fresh.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer trying to figure out if now is the right time to jump in, a senior thinking about rightsizing, or a homeowner wondering what’s happening to property values in Windsor-Essex — this post is for you. And if you’d rather just talk it through, you can always reach me directly here.

The Big Picture: What CMHC Is Seeing in Windsor-Essex

The CMHC briefing zeroed in on three interconnected forces shaping the Windsor-Essex real estate market in 2026:

• Declining housing starts — fewer new homes are breaking ground across Ontario and our region
• A growing seniors population with real, unmet demand for downsizing-friendly housing
• A persistent price gap between new construction and resale homes that is shaping who buys what — and where

These three things don’t exist in isolation — they feed into each other in ways that directly affect what’s available, what’s affordable, and what the smartest move is depending on your situation right now. For context on what the broader Windsor-Essex numbers looked like heading into 2026, you can check my January 2026 Windsor-Essex market update.

Fewer Homes Being Built — And Why That Matters to You

Ontario housing starts have trended downward for two consecutive years. For the Windsor-Essex housing market, this isn’t just a construction statistic — it has real ripple effects.

When fewer homes are being built, construction employment contracts. Electricians, framers, plumbers, concrete suppliers — the skilled trades that form the economic backbone of communities like Windsor, Leamington, and Kingsville — feel that directly. Housing supply isn’t just a real estate problem; it’s an economic issue that touches working families across our region.

The good news? Policy conversations are moving in the right direction. Discussions around reducing development charges and lowering construction-related fees are aimed at making it financially viable to build more homes — and at bringing those homes to market at prices buyers can actually afford. You can read more about the national data and methodology behind these trends directly at CMHC’s website.

Seniors and the Downsizing Gap in Windsor-Essex

This was one of the most striking parts of the CMHC presentation, and honestly, it reflects what I see on the ground every week.

Approximately 19% of Windsor-Essex residents are aged 65 or older — making ours one of the oldest regional populations in Ontario. The 65-plus age group is also the fastest-growing population segment in the province. That translates to significant, growing demand for housing that’s built with seniors in mind: accessible bungalows, low-maintenance condos, and lock-and-leave lifestyle options.

But here’s the challenge: downsizing only makes sense if the math works. A senior in a four-bedroom home in Kingsville or a waterfront property near Leamington isn’t going to make a move if the only available options are priced comparably to what they already own. The transition has to make financial sense — and right now, the supply of truly affordable, seniors-appropriate homes hasn’t kept pace with the demand.

If you’re weighing up communities in this region, my guide to Leamington vs. Kingsville vs. Wheatley breaks down the lifestyle, affordability, and housing character of each community — and is a great starting point for anyone thinking about where to land next.

Builders are aware of the demographic data, and CMHC expects developers to increasingly target this market with purpose-built products over the next several years. We’ll likely see more smaller bungalows, accessible units, and condo apartments designed specifically for the 65-plus buyer across the Windsor-Essex region.

Why Seniors Housing Unlocks Opportunity for Everyone

Here’s something worth understanding if you’re a first-time buyer or a growing family in Windsor or Leamington: seniors housing supply and your options are directly connected.

When seniors can find a suitable, affordable home to move into, they list their current homes. Those listings create access to established neighbourhoods and well-maintained properties that might otherwise never come to market. Building the right seniors housing creates a chain reaction that benefits buyers at every stage.

New Construction vs. Resale: Where Does the Value Lie Right Now?

This is the question I get asked more than almost any other, especially from first-time buyers trying to decide whether to wait for new construction or move on a resale home. Here’s the honest answer based on what CMHC presented — and what I’m seeing in the market.

The price gap between new homes and resale homes has not narrowed — in some segments, it has actually widened. New home prices are anchored to hard costs: labour, materials, land, and fees. Those costs remain elevated. Resale prices, on the other hand, have softened over the past couple of years. That combination means that for most buyers in the Windsor-Essex market right now, resale offers significantly better price-per-square-foot value.

The 35–44 age group — the core of household formation activity in our region — is driving the strongest demand in the resale market for exactly this reason. Established neighbourhoods in Windsor, mature communities in Kingsville, and family-friendly streets in Leamington are where value-conscious buyers are finding the most home for their dollar. If you’re thinking about relocating to the area, my Moving to Leamington in 2026 guide covers what life here really looks like day to day.

For new construction to become truly competitive, builders would need to adjust the product significantly — smaller floor plans, reduced finishes, lower square footage — to hit a price point that competes with resale. Some may do exactly that in response to demographic demand. But for most buyers in the near term, resale is likely to capture the majority of demand in Windsor-Essex.

A Quick Comparison

What This Means Depending on Your Situation

If You’re a First-Time Buyer in Windsor-Essex

The resale market is likely your best entry point right now. Prices have softened, and you’ll typically get more home for your dollar in an established neighbourhood than you would waiting for new construction at current price levels. Don’t let the idea of a brand-new home pull you away from what might be genuinely better value. I work with first-time buyers across Windsor-Essex every week — let’s talk about what you’re looking for.

If You’re a Senior Thinking About Downsizing in Windsor, Leamington, or Kingsville

You are not alone — and you’re not imagining the limited inventory. The market hasn’t caught up to the demand for seniors-appropriate housing yet, but it is moving in that direction. In the meantime, there are still good options out there. A conversation about your timeline, your must-haves, and your current home’s value is the best place to start. I’ve helped many Windsor-Essex homeowners navigate exactly this transition — don’t just take my word for it, you can read what past clients have said on my Google Reviews and on my Rate My Agent profile.

If You’re a Current Homeowner Thinking of Selling

The demand picture in Windsor-Essex remains real and active — especially in the resale segment. If you’ve been holding off because you’re unsure about the market, the CMHC data suggests that resale demand is holding up well, particularly from the 35–44 age group. What your home is worth today, and what the best timing looks like for your specific property and community, is a conversation worth having sooner rather than later. Reach out anytime — there’s no obligation, just an honest conversation.

My Takeaway From This Morning’s CMHC Briefing

What struck me most sitting in that room this morning wasn’t one single statistic — it was the reminder that the Windsor-Essex real estate market is shaped by real people and real lives. The seniors who want to stay in the communities they’ve called home for decades. The young families in Windsor and Leamington who are working hard to get into a first home. The tradespeople whose livelihoods depend on new construction activity picking back up.

These aren’t abstract trends. They’re your neighbours — and maybe they’re you.

If you have questions about what any of this means for your specific situation — whether you’re in Windsor, Leamington, Kingsville, or anywhere across Windsor-Essex — please don’t hesitate to reach out. That’s exactly what I’m here for. You can also explore the full range of communities I serve at Jump Realty.